Few things affect NFL picks like quarterback injuries, and the past few weeks have featured a slew of signal-callers hitting the training room. While you don't want to overreact to some of these injuries, you also don't want to ignore them completely when making your Week 9 picks for NFL pick 'em pools and survivor pools.
In this post, we highlight five Week 9 picks that can help you move up the standings in your 2023 football pick 'em or confidence pool. We also give an overview of the NFL survivor pool pick landscape for this week. Week 9 features only two teams favored by more than a touchdown and, as we alluded to earlier, a lot of quarterback storylines. As of post time, we await news on whether Kyler Murray (knee) will make his season debut for Arizona, whether Matthew Stafford can play after a thumb injury, and more.
This analysis is brought to you by PoolGenius, the only site that harnesses the power of algorithms to maximize your edge in football pools. Since 2017, PoolGenius subscribers have reported winning prizes in football pick ’em contests and NFL survivor pools more than three times as often as expected.
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Week 9 NFL Pick 'em Pool Picks: Tips, strategy
How we identify NFL Week 9 value picks
To increase your edge in football pools, making good predictions is only part of the battle. Besides, point spreads provide a quick and accurate assessment of each team's chance to win, and very few people can consistently out-predict Vegas odds.
The bigger edge in pick ’em pools comes from learning how to apply game theory because you can only rise in the standings if you score points that your opponents miss. To do that, you need to identify the smartest opportunities to differentiate your picks from the crowd, such as:
- Making a highly unpopular pick that is worth a calculated gamble
- Avoiding trendy upset picks where risk is higher but reward is lower
The picks below provide some of the best chances to differentiate your NFL Week 9 picks by taking on little or no additional risk. In a season-long pool, you almost certainly shouldn't pick all five of them (especially the upset picks) because it would be too risky overall, but they’re all worthy of consideration in certain situations.
Note: Win odds and estimated pick popularity data are accurate as of 11 a.m. ET on Wednesday, Nov. 1, but data often changes between publication time and kickoff. If you want the latest numbers, our product updates all data multiple times per day.
Green Bay Packers (vs. Los Angeles Rams)
Point Spread:-3
Pick Popularity:39%
Category: Value favorite
The Packers are the favorite in this game, but you wouldn’t know it by the public pick rates where the Rams are the more popular side. The line reflects the uncertainty of Matthew Stafford’s thumb situation, as L.A. was favored by 1.5 points in last week’s look-ahead lines before the injury.
That means that this game could shift either way depending on the final news there, but for now, the Packers are representing a solid value play.
WEEK 9 DFS LINEUPS: FanDuel | DraftKings
New England Patriots (vs. Washington Commanders)
Point Spread:-3.5
Pick Popularity:53%
Category: Value favorite
The Patriots are the betting favorite at home over Washington, but the public is splitting the vote here. The Commanders have been up-and-down on offense but pretty consistently poor on defense, and they just traded DE Montez Sweat to the Bears and DE Chase Young to the 49ers at the deadline on Tuesday.
Washington is 29th in yards allowed and 31st in points allowed, which helps explain why it's the road 'dog here, and this line has continued to move in New England’s favor after those trades.
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Carolina Panthers (vs. Indianapolis Colts)
Point Spread:+3
Pick Popularity:18%
Category:Value gamble in weekly prize pools
For the second week in a row, we feature Carolina as a value upset play at home against an AFC South team. The Panthers got their first win of the season last week against Houston, and now they get the Colts at home as a slight underdog.
The value proposition is virtually the same this week, with just 16 percent picking the Panthers even though they are an underdog of just three points.
WEEK 9 FANTASY PPR RANKINGS:
QBs | RBs | WRs | TEs | D/STs | Kickers
Atlanta Falcons (vs. Minnesota Vikings)
Point Spread:-5
Popularity:77%
Category:Reasonably priced favorite
Atlanta flopped as a value favorite facing the Titans in QB Will Levis’ debut, but the Falcons get a second chance here going against a Minnesota team that is now without QB Kirk Cousins (Achilles).
Atlanta is a relative value this week when there aren't many teams favored by more than a field goal because the Falcons are the fourth-largest favorite of Week 9. However, they're only the seventh-most popular pick right now.
New York Giants (at Las Vegas Raiders)
Point Spread:+2.5
Popularity:22%
Category: Value gamble in weekly prize pools
The Giants were also a value upset play a week ago, coming up just short after taking the Jets to overtime, and they're back in that role this week. Now they get Las Vegas, a team that just fired head coach Josh McDaniels after another poor performance on Monday Night Football.
New York’s offense struggled against the Jets, as it was down to third-string QB Tommy DeVito and had negative passing yards for the game, but Daniel Jones (neck) is expected to return this week. Our odds put this one at closer to 46 percent for the Giants to win, making for a good upset risk with their current popularity.
Week 9 NFL Survivor Pool Advice: Top picks, strategy
Nearly everyone survived last week, as all the popular NFL survivor picks advanced. In Week 9, things get a little tighter, as there are only two teams favored by more than a touchdown (and just barely, with spreads of -7.5).
Because of that, the public is flocking to either Cleveland (50 percent) or New Orleans (33 percent) as their Week 9 survivor pick. No other team is drawing more than three percent of public picks as of now.
That makes for an interesting decision: Do you follow the crowd on one of those two teams, or stay off them and take a team that is unpopular but increases your upside if there are some upsets this week? See the survivor analysis tool at the bottom of this post to get all the relevant data to make an informed decision.
Get All Our Week 9 NFL Picks
Maximizing your edge in football pick ’em and survivor contests requires a lot of data, math, and time. Besides having to analyze information like win odds and pick popularity to identify value picks, you also need to understand the optimal level of risk to take with your Week 9 entries.
That's why PoolGenius built the Football Pick 'em Picks and NFL Survivor Picks products. They are the only tools that provide customized weekly pick recommendations for football pick 'em and survivor pools, using algorithms that give you the best chance to win.
Try them out for free, and good luck with your NFL Week 9 picks!
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