Wheeler's mailbag: Hagens vs. Celebrini, Schaefer vs. 2024 D, 2025 sleepers (2024)

The 2025 NHL Draft season is officially (already) upon us. The Hlinka Gretzky Cup, the first event on the prospect calendar, is in the rearview mirror. Rookie tournaments are around the corner. Monday, I released my preseason 2025 NHL Draft ranking. And it’s time for my first mailbag of the new season. You submitted a lot of questions. Here, I’ve answered 10 of the big ones in depth.

Note: Questions have been lightly edited for clarity and length, and similar questions have been grouped together. If you submitted a question and I didn’t answer it below, I’ll circle back to the submissions and answer the rest in the coming days.

What tier of recent No. 1 picks does James Hagens belong in? — Sterling

As of right now, do you see a huge gap between the NHL potential of Macklin Celebrini and James Hagens? I’m talking more about points potential. — Mathieu

With the caveat that he hasn’t played a single game of his freshman year at BC yet, here’s how I’d sort Hagens with the last 10 first picks based on a combination of where I was at on each at the time and where the consensus was on each at the time.

Tier 1a: Connor McDavid
Tier 1b: Connor Bedard
Tier 2: Auston Matthews
Tier 3: Macklin Celebrini, Rasmus Dahlin, Jack Hughes, James Hagens, Alexis Lafrenière
Tier 4: Owen Power
Tier 5: Nico Hischier, Juraj Slafkovsky

Celebrini is viewed as the better player/prospect at this moment, and that’s fair because he’s a little bigger and a little more well rounded/complete (though Hagens is a real competitor/driver in his own right). If we’re just talking “points potential,” though, then it’s very close, and I wouldn’t be surprised if Hagens were the more productive player at his peak/ceiling offensively. Points ≠ better, though, always.

Early on, how would you rank Matthew Schaefer and Logan Hensler versus some of the top D from recent drafts? — Patrick

If Matthew Schaefer was in the 2024 NHL Draft, where would you rank him against 2024’s top defenseman? — Comrade

Here’s how I’d rank the two top D prospects from this draft against last year’s at the moment (and acknowledging how early the book on Schaefer and Hensler still is, even considering Schaefer’s pedigree and Hensler’s two years at the program):

1. Artyom Levshunov
2. Zeev Buium
3. Zayne Parekh
—
4. Matthew Schaefer
5. Sam Dickinson
6. Anton Silayev
—
7. Logan Hensler
8. Carter Yakemchuk

I could flip-flop within those tiers, but that’s how I’m seeing the groupings right now.

How does 2025’s second tier of prospects compare with 2024’s second tier? — A.B.

I’ve got a second tier of 2-8 after Hagens within the 2025 class to start the year. Here’s my early read on those prospects versus the players taken 2-8 in the 2024 draft:

2. Anton Frondel < Artyom Levshunov
3. Porter Martone > Beckett Sennecke
4. Ivan Ryabkin > Cayden Lindstrom
5. Matthew Schaefer < Ivan Demidov
6. Michael Misa = Tij Ignla
7. Roger McQueen > Carter Yakemchuk
8. Logan Hensler < Berkley Catton

That puts it at more or less a 3-3 tie, though I’m certainly not firm on most of those yet. The real difference between the two drafts, which will reveal itself over time, will be that 2024’s second tier is larger than 2025’s. Not considered above is that Zayne Parekh, Anton Silayev, Sam Dickinson and Zeev Buium were taken 9-12 in 2024. This year’s class doesn’t look like it has a dozen players of that quality, and I don’t think it’ll get there. The 2024 draft looks stronger than 2025.

We haven’t heard much about Gavin McKenna during and after the Hlinka. Thoughts on his performance there? — Karl

By McKenna’s standards — and he has set the bar high— his six-in-five tournament (third on Team Canada in scoring) was less productive than expected, especially after he had 20-in-seven at U18 worlds against stiffer, older competition (though the smaller number of teams does weed out the bottom-feeders, he did have half of his 6 points against Switzerland in a 10-0 win). He was still pretty clearly Canada’s most threatening player and top chance creator offensively though, and had a litany of chances he just didn’t convert on. Throughout the tournament, he was getting frustrated when he wasn’t scoring on all of the Grade-A looks he was getting. His point total could have easily been 10 instead of 6, for example. It’s summer hockey. It happens. According to InStat, his 39 shot attempts in five games (7.8 per game) were second most in the tournament behind only fellow 2026 prospect Ivar Stenberg’s 46.

I view McKenna as a transcendent, franchise-altering prospect. To go back to my No. 1 buckets above, he’s probably in that Tier 2 with Matthews. He’s special.

Is this a weaker draft class? Is it likely someone like Anton Frondell or Porter Martone jumps James Hagens? — Jay

At this (again, early) stage, I’d qualify 2025 as a below-average draft class. The second part of this question is an interesting one, though, because I have heard murmurs from folks at least asking it. It’s certainly more a minority of scouts who are asking it, but people within the NHL and Hockey Canada have fallen in love withMartone (there are some around the OHL who are cooler on him though), and others were blown away by Frondell at the U18 Five Nations last year before his injury and that is still present in their minds. I’d add Matthew Schaefer to this group as well. Hockey people are very, very high on Schaefer right now (like top two-three high), and deservedly so.

I view Hagens as a cut above those three right now though and I think it’s more likely that he separates than the opposite for me.

Who are your 2025 sleeper picks and what are their key characteristics that make them special compared to the other draftees? — Paul

Who’s a guy currently ranked outside of the first round that you think has the most potential? — Jordan

He was one of the final cuts for my top 32, but I think Donato Bracco thinks the game at a very advanced level, and some in hockey circles in the U.S. have thrown out some pretty lofty comps for him that I’ll hold tight for now. The question with Bracco is one of size/body relative to his offensive mind/feel. Is the latter high-end enough to make him a first-round talent or is he Aron Kiviharju (who was drafted in the fourth round)?

I don’t think Charlottetown defenseman Owen Conrad or NTDP forward Jack Murtagh, also among the final cuts for my top 32, have been getting enough love publicly or privately, either.

We’ve recently been seeing some high first-round picks come from atypical countries (Norway, Belarus, Austria, etc.). Are there any off-the-beaten-path players in this year’s draft pool? — Aavcocup

There isn’t an Artyom Levshunov or even a Michael Brandsegg-Nygaard or Stian Solberg in this age group, but there are some interesting prospects from outside the big seven (Canada, USA, Russia, Sweden, Finland and then Czechia and Slovakia) that are the staples of international hockey’s top levels.

Norwegian forward Mikkel Eriksen caught my eye at U18 worlds and leads a handful of players from Norway who again hope to get drafted. It can be hard, at both U18s and the world juniors, to stand out on some of the lesser teams. Top prospects like Marco Rossi and David Reinbacher haven’t been able to establish themselves at tournaments. But whenever Norway seemed to be making things happen inside the offensive zone throughout this year’s event, Eriksen, who is just days away from 2026 eligibility because of his Sept. 13 birthday, was often the driver. He’s a good skater. He’s got a quick release. He reads the play well. He showed he could hold pucks against older competition. He created looks for himself. I think he’s still got some learning to do on the defensive side of the puck but he stood out as much as you can within that group. I knew very little about him coming in but he looked like a draft pick and I’m planning to watch him in the fall with Farjestad’s J20 team.

I thought about including Latvian forwards Bruno Osmanis and Daniels Serkins in the honorable mentions for my preseason list. German D Carlos Handel impressed some folks at his second Hlinka Gretzky Cup. I’ve had some people push Swiss forward Florian Schenk, who will play in Saint John next season, to me. I’m sure there will be others I’m unfamiliar with who will emerge.

It’s very early days.

(Top photo of James Hagens: Russell Hons / Cal Sport Media via Associated Press)

Scott Wheeler covers the NHL draft and prospects nationally for The Athletic. Scott has written for the Toronto Star, the Globe and Mail, The Toronto Sun, the National Post, SB Nation and several other outlets in the past. Follow Scott on Twitter @scottcwheeler